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Sure-thing principle
In decision theory, the sure-thing principle states that sure things—outcomes which occur regardless of which actions are chosen—should not affect one’s preferences.
The principle was coined by L.J. Savage:〔Savage, L. J. (1954), ''The foundations of statistics''. John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York.〕
He formulated the principle as a dominance principle, but it can also be framed probabilistically.
The principle is closely related to independence of irrelevant alternatives, and equivalent under the axiom of truth (everything the agent knows is true).〔Samet, Dov. ("The sure-thing principle and independence of irrelevant knowledge". Israel Institute of Business Research, 2008. )〕 It is similarly targeted by the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes, in which actual people's choices seem to violate this principle.〔 Furthermore, Simpson's paradox relates to cases where a naive attempt to apply the sure-thing principle would give the wrong answer.
==References==
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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